Saturday 14th December 2019

Resource Clips


Posts tagged ‘saskatchewan’

International Montoro Resources finds greater massive sulphide potential at Elliot Lake, Ontario

December 3rd, 2019

by Greg Klein | December 3, 2019

After adding results from a ZTEM MVI inversion magnetic survey, estimates of the Pecors anomaly double in size.

 

The Serpent River property shows enhanced prospects for nickel, copper, gold, platinum and palladium, according to a recent compilation and analysis of geophysical data. International Montoro Resources TSXV:IMT reported two likely massive sulphide targets over the project’s Pecors anomaly. Now measured to about 5.7 kilometres by 4.2 kilometres by 2.2 kilometres, the anomaly extends to twice the size of a previous estimate.

International Montoro Resources finds greater massive sulphide potential at Elliot Lake, Ontario

A 2015 drill program tested the property’s magnetic anomaly.

The findings come from Mira Geoscience, considered a pioneer of advanced geological and geophysical modelling. The firm analyzed data using its Geoscience Analyst 3D visualization and exploration platform.

Following a 2007 VTEM survey, Montoro sunk two holes totalling 2,322 metres in 2015. One hole intersected a magnetic anomaly’s source, a gabbro body with minor sulphides showing nickel, copper and PGE values near the base. The other hole also intersected the gabbro, finding low-grade gold, platinum, palladium, copper and nickel values, the company stated.

“In essence we are exploring for a massive sulphide nickel-copper-PGE-gold deposit,” said president/CEO Gary Musil.

Last October the company announced a 51% earn-in on the 2,250-hectare Camping Lake property in Ontario’s Red Lake district. In British Columbia’s Cariboo region, Montoro completed rock and soil sampling last July on its 2,138-hectare property bordering Defense Metals’ TSXV:DEFN Wicheeda rare earths project.

Montoro’s portfolio also includes two northern Saskatchewan uranium properties held 50/50 with Belmont Resources TSXV:BEA.

Mining for the future

November 21st, 2019

Saskatchewan Research Council R&D fosters innovation and sustainability

by Greg Klein

Predictably for a jurisdiction so rich in potash and uranium, mining plays a prominent role in the Saskatchewan Growth Plan, a 10-year economic program announced last week. Skeptics, however, might question the goal to extract lithium and rare earths locally and even set a near-precedent in non-Chinese commercial REE separation. But it turns out that some of that work has been underway for years, while other targets have already been in the planning stage. That’s just part of a wide range of mining expertise developed and applied by the Saskatchewan Research Council.

Saskatchewan Research Council R&D fosters innovation and sustainability

SRC employees look over the remediated Lorado mill site
in northern Saskatchewan. (Photo provided by SRC)

SRC figures strongly in the province’s new agenda, whose mining-related initiatives include a continuation of the PST exception on drilling, streamlining permitting, creating a Geoscience Data Management System, boosting annual uranium and potash sales, upgrading and building road, rail, pipeline and power infrastructure, and developing nuclear energy.

If some of the mining-specific plans sound over-ambitious, it’s reassuring to learn how few of them are actually new. “The fact that the projects have been promoted in an integrated growth plan is in some ways new, and some of the projects themselves are fairly new in the public domain,” says SRC president/CEO Mike Crabtree. But a surprising amount of work is well underway at his organization, which plays an integral role in the growth plan, in Saskatchewan industry and, increasingly, on the global mining scene.

A Crown corporation with over 340 employees, 1,400 clients in 23 countries and $75 million in annual revenue, SRC focuses its largest division on mining and energy. Mining-related R&D covers everything from early exploration to remediation, with growing attention to sustainability and innovation.

Saskatchewan Research Council R&D fosters innovation and sustainability

Rare earths solvent extraction helps develop another
source of critical minerals. (Photo provided by SRC)

The SRC boasts the largest potash, uranium and diamonds labs in the world. Most Canadian diamond production and a substantial amount of kimberlite from around the world passes through the Saskatoon facility.

“With uranium we test tens of thousands of ore samples per year, predominantly for Saskatchewan but also on a global basis. In terms of that, we’re very much the largest laboratory in the world and, for very similar reasons, for potash.”

But SRC’s work goes far beyond assays. “We’ve also used those laboratories for designing and modelling mine feasibility, through to diagnostics and optimization of ongoing mine operations, and then monitoring and remediation for closure,” Crabtree explains. “That’s full-cycle mining and minerals, making SRC probably one of the largest integrated testing, research and development facilities for mining, certainly in Canada and possibly in the world.”

One sustainability project focuses on comminution, the highly expensive and energy-consuming practice of breaking, crushing or grinding rock for further processing. SRC’s advanced ore sensor and sorting techniques can greatly reduce the procedure with no loss of production and sometimes even an improvement.

Saskatchewan Research Council R&D fosters innovation and sustainability

The SRC’s mineral processing labs handle extensive
work in addition to assays. (Photo provided by SRC)

“We’re already seeing the opportunity to reduce energy costs and therefore the carbon footprint by anywhere from 20% to 40%. That’s huge given that often 40% of operating costs are in energy. That kind of sustainability and economic optimization really just shows different sides of the same coin.”

Remediation work applies leading edge expertise to former mines through SRC’s Project CLEANS, which takes on the challenge of mitigating some 37 former uranium sites that shut down during the 1960s and earlier.

On another front, Crabtree says SRC oil and gas expertise brings “a lot of synergies” to the development of in-situ mining, a method that’s being tested on potash and uranium projects in Saskatchewan.

As for strategic minerals, the SRC harbours some surprising ambitions: local lithium and rare earths extraction, along with processing in both areas including commercial-scale REE separation. That last goal could give Saskatoon a key role in challenging China’s near-monopoly on rare earths supply chains.

Looking at lithium, Saskatchewan has two potential sources, the continental brines of the southern province, as well as oil and gas-produced waste water.

Starting with lithium levels of 50 ppm to 150 ppm, “SRC has developed technology to concentrate those brines up to maybe 2,500 or 3,000 ppm while excluding the contaminants, which makes processing to lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate much easier and financially viable,” Crabtree says.

Saskatchewan Research Council R&D fosters innovation and sustainability

SRC oversees the Cowessess First Nation Renewable
Energy Storage Facility. (Photo provided by SRC)

Another possible source of critical minerals from waste comes from the world’s highest-grade uranium resources, which offer rare earths potential from tailings.

Of course with rare earths, the greatest challenge remains processing and separation. SRC plans to develop technology that could be applied to liquid raffinate from waste, or to the bastnasite or monazite minerals often associated with RE deposits.

Phase I begins next year. Working with industrial partners, SRC intends to produce a concentrate of 99.95% mixed rare earths oxides or rare earths carbonate.

Phase II, subject to funding from industry and government, will be to separate the concentrate into individual elements. He foresees “a smaller-scale commercial plant that would demonstrate the commercial viability of that technology. We can see a plant operating within about three years, assuming we can get funding. If no other plant is built by 2003, it would be the first commercial plant in North America.”

And a momentous achievement. Except for the Lynas facility in Malaysia and possibly a small-scale operation in France, there’s currently no commercial RE separation outside China, he points out.

Additionally, “we believe the process will be substantially more economically viable and much more environmentally sustainable than current techniques.”

Saskatchewan’s Growth Plan also calls for nuclear power. By becoming a consumer of its own uranium, the province hopes to drastically cut its dependence on coal and natural gas-fired electricity.

Saskatchewan Research Council R&D fosters innovation and sustainability

Staff operate SRC’s Centre for the Demonstration of
Emissions Reductions Mobile Facility. (Photo provided by SRC)

Again, SRC can offer a range of expertise. “We have experience not only with mining and processing uranium but also with an operational research reactor, which we just de-fueled in September. So we are the only entity in the province that has a nuclear reactor operating licence. In addition, other parts of SRC are highly skilled at environmental assessment and engineering assessment, so we hope SRC will be playing a role in Saskatchewan for small modular reactors.”

What comes up repeatedly in SRC’s work is the convergence of economics and sustainability as researchers find newer, less expensive and greener methods of producing materials that are, in turn, crucial to economic and environmental well-being. Ongoing innovation, of course, plays a vital role.

So it’s not surprising that a growing SRC priority is artificial intelligence—“specifically for industrial and resource processes in Saskatchewan,” Crabtree emphasizes.

“A lot of the processes that we’re talking about, whether it’s rare earths, lithium, sensor-based sorting, in-situ mining, all these things are going to have a significant deep data analytics and artificial intelligence component. That’s something we’re working very closely on.”

Looking ahead, he adds, “It will be difficult to envisage major projects like these in the next five years that don’t have a significant AI component.”

Read more about mining’s role in the Saskatchewan Growth Plan.

Read the Saskatchewan Research Council blog.

Updated: Belmont Resources’ Greenwood expansion continues with new acquisitions

November 21st, 2019

Update: On November 21, 2019, the company announced two more Greenwood-area acquisitions totalling 45 hectares in the Pride of the West and Great Bear claims.

by Greg Klein | October 30, 2019

Newly acquired turf shows continued interest in an historic southern British Columbia mining camp. On October 30 Belmont Resources TSXV:BEA announced 127 hectares of new claims to add to its existing holdings in the area.

The Glenora acquisition sits adjacent to Golden Dawn Minerals’ (TSXV:GOM) Golden Crown project, about three kilometres from Golden Dawn’s processing plant and one kilometre from the former Phoenix mine.

Belmont Resources expands its presence in B.C.’s Greenwood camp

Although neighbouring deposits don’t necessarily reflect on the potential of other properties, an idea of Greenwood activity can be gleaned from historic production at Phoenix. The open pit reportedly produced over one million ounces of gold and 500 million pounds of copper up to 1978. Golden Crown reached PEA in 2017 with a resource that uses a 3.5 g/t gold-equivalent cutoff:

Indicated: 163,000 tonnes averaging 11.09 g/t gold and 0.56% copper for 11.93 g/t gold-equivalent containing 62,500 gold-equivalent ounces

Inferred: 42,000 tonnes averaging 9.04 g/t gold and 0.43% copper for 9.68 g/t gold-equivalent containing 13,100 gold-equivalent ounces

Belmont plans further assessment of Glenora while considering other possible acquisitions in the camp.

The new claims will cost the company 420,000 units on TSXV approval, with each unit containing one share and one warrant. Another 420,000 shares are payable within a year and a 1.5% NSR will apply.

Earlier this month Belmont reported sample results from its Greenwood-area Pathfinder project, with grades up to 4.999 ppm gold, 35.86 ppm silver, 20700 ppm copper and 45.1 ppm cobalt. The autumn campaign followed a summer program that returned sample assays up to 29.2 g/t gold, along with silver, copper and lead. The company currently has contract proposals under review for an airborne VTEM survey over the property.

Belmont’s portfolio also includes a 75% interest in Nevada’s Kibby Basin lithium project, where drill results have graded up to 393 ppm lithium over 42.4 metres and 415 ppm over 30.5 metres. In northern Saskatchewan the company shares a 50/50 stake with International Montoro Resources TSXV:IMT in two uranium properties.

Belmont currently has private placements on offer totalling up to $300,000. The company closed a $252,000 private placement last June and arranged two loans totalling $50,000 in August.

Saskatchewan mining plans include drilling incentive, lithium extraction and rare earths processing

November 14th, 2019

by Greg Klein | November 14, 2019

It’s interesting enough now but the manifesto might make even more compelling reading 10 years from now. That’s the due date for no less than 30 lofty economic and social goals announced in Saskatchewan’s Growth Plan on November 14. Not surprising for a province where mining plays such an important role, the government intends to further encourage the industry. But the agenda goes well beyond Saskatchewan’s standbys of potash and uranium to call for the development of nuclear energy, lithium extraction technologies and “the first North American REE processing plant to deliver individual high-purity REEs.”

Saskatchewan mining plans include drilling incentive, lithium extraction and rare earths processing

Among the objectives already achieved is the renewed PST exemption on drilling. In a news release from the Saskatchewan Mining Association, Purepoint Uranium TSXV:PTU VP of exploration Scott Frostad describing drilling as “the lifeblood of a sustainable mining sector.

“All discoveries are made through drilling and the life of a mine is extended through drilling off additional reserves. Monies recovered through reinstatement of the PST exemption on drilling will be invested in more holes being drilled, which will increase the prospects of finding the next Saskatchewan mineral deposit or extending the life of an existing mine.” 

Exploration spending in the province’s north will surpass $200 million this year, the SMA stated. “Drilling costs represent almost half of a typical exploration budget. For every $1 spent on drilling, another $1.30 is spent on support activities such as geophysics, groceries, camp and air support, and professional services, with the majority of this spend with companies operating out of northern Saskatchewan.”

If the growth plan goes to plan, Saskatchewan will find another customer for its uranium. That would be Saskatchewan itself, which will work with New Brunswick and Ontario to generate electricity with small modular nuclear reactors. Combined with wind and solar, the province hopes to make up to 80% of its energy mix emissions-free. Saskatchewan currently generates most of its electricity from coal and natural gas.

The province also sees potential in strategic and critical metals, touting “world-class resources of both lithium and rare earth elements, which are extracted as part of oil and uranium production.”

The Saskatchewan Party government plans to consider partnerships with industry, universities and research institutes to develop lithium extraction, to work with miners to develop rare earths, “including production of high-value REE concentrate in Saskatchewan within the next two years,” and to host the continent’s first plant to process individual high-purity REEs.

[A rare earths processing plant] would be a first in Canada that would create jobs, increase exports and provide a significant opportunity for value-added manufacturing.—Government of Saskatchewan

“This would be a first in Canada that would create jobs, increase exports and provide a significant opportunity for value-added manufacturing,” the government stated.

The province also committed to streamline permitting and create a Geoscience Data Management System “to increase exploration efficiency, improve drilling and development outcomes, and make new discoveries.”

With Phase I pre-planning expected to finish this month, the project will “improve the province’s investment attractiveness for its mining and petroleum sectors by facilitating access to high-quality geoscience data and supporting the growing interest by industry in machine learning/artificial intelligence applications to guide natural resource exploration,” a government spokesperson told ResourceClips.com.

Among the plan’s 30 goals are increasing annual uranium sales to $2 billion and potash to $9 billion.

Ambitious infrastructure plans entail highway expansion and upgrades, a north-south rail line, and support for pipeline expansion and a national infrastructure corridor to enhance connections with the port of Vancouver and establish a link with the port of Churchill, Manitoba.

Last year mining contributed over $7 billion to Saskatchewan’s GDP, which reached an all-time high of $82.5 billion with the country’s third-highest growth rate. According to the SMA, the industry employs 30,000 people directly and indirectly, with a payroll of over $1.4 billion to direct employees, and is proportionally Saskatchewan’s largest private sector employer of indigenous workers. 

Read Mining for the future: Saskatchewan Research Council R&D fosters innovation and sustainability.

Belmont Resources expands its presence in B.C.’s Greenwood camp

October 30th, 2019

This story has been updated and moved here.

PDAC infographics: Highlighting mining’s contributions to Canada’s economy

October 28th, 2019

by Greg Klein | October 28, 2019

Although Canadian miners hold global stature, Canadians don’t always recognize the industry’s importance to our own country. Yet the numbers tell a story that’s not only impressive but vital to understanding an economy in which mining supports one in 29 jobs and provides the largest private sector source of native employment.

To state the case clearly, the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada created a series of infographics outlining the industry’s contributions. Check them out yourself by scrolling down to see facts and figures for Canada overall and for each province or territory. Or click on the menu below for a direct link to each jurisdiction.

Canada nationwide | Yukon | Northwest Territories/Nunavut | British Columbia | Alberta | Saskatchewan | Manitoba | Ontario | Quebec | New Brunswick/Nova Scotia | Newfoundland and Labrador/Prince Edward Island

Posted with permission of the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada.

 

PDAC infographics Highlighting mining’s contributions to Canada’s economy

 

PDAC Yukon mining infographic

 

PDAC NWT Nunavut mining infographic

 

PDAC BC mining infographic

 

PDAC Alberta mining infographic

 

PDAC Saskatchewan mining infographic

 

PDAC Manitoba mining infographic

 

PDAC Ontario mining infographic

 

PDAC Quebec mining infographic

 

PDAC Nova Scotia New Brunswick mining infographic

 

PDAC Newfoundland Labrador PEI mining infographic

Posted with permission of the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada.

International Montoro Resources moves into Ontario’s Red Lake camp

October 23rd, 2019

by Greg Klein | October 23, 2019

A new acquisition brings another player into a busy northwestern Ontario mining and exploration region. Under an agreement announced October 23, International Montoro Resources TSXV:IMT can earn a 51% interest in the 2,250-hectare Camping Lake property on the Birch-Uchi-Confederation Lakes greenstone belt, home to the Red Lake gold deposits and Great Bear Resources’ (TSXV:GBR) attention-grabbing Dixie Lake property 20 kilometres north.

International Montoro Resources moves into Ontario’s Red Lake camp

Previous work at Camping Lake includes petrographic studies, rock, soil and lake sediment samples, IP and ground geophysics, as well as drilling. Conducted between 2010 and 2013, the work was carried out by Laurentian Goldfields, Kinross Gold TSX:K and AngloGold Ashanti NYSE:AU. Montoro plans an immediate compilation of exploration data prior to its own program.

Under the JV agreement with Falcon Gold TSXV:FG, Montoro would issue 1.5 million shares over one year and assume Falcon’s payments of $65,000 over four years. Montoro’s exploration commitments would call for $100,000 within one year and another $200,000 over the second year. On earning the initial 51%, Montoro could up its stake to 75% by paying $500,000. A 2% NSR applies.

In Ontario’s Elliot Lake district, Montoro has found nickel-copper-PGE potential in addition to historic uranium and rare earths mineralization on the company’s Serpent River project. Last month Montoro engaged Mira Geoscience to undertake an extensive study of the company’s drilling and geophysics data, along with previous work on or around the property by other companies and regional programs by the Ontario Geological Survey.

In central British Columbia’s Cariboo region, Montoro holds a 2,138-hectare property bordering Defense Metals’ TSXV:DEFN Wicheeda rare earths project.

In southern Quebec’s Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region, Montoro holds the Duhamel titanium-vanadium-chromium prospect. The company’s portfolio also includes two northern Saskatchewan uranium properties held 50/50 with Belmont Resources TSXV:BEA.

Earlier this month Montoro closed a private placement first tranche of $47,500.

Read more about International Montoro Resources.

Read more about Ontario’s Red Lake camp.

Belmont Resources announces B.C. gold-silver-cobalt samples, appoints Greenwood veteran to BOD

October 17th, 2019

by Greg Klein | October 17, 2019

Recent surface sampling at southern British Columbia’s Greenwood camp brought further encouragement to Belmont Resources’ (TSXV:BEA) Pathfinder project. The field program follows a summer campaign that yielded samples grading up to 29.2 g/t gold, as well as silver, copper and lead, from the historic mining region. The current batch shows anomalous cobalt as well:

  • 4.999 ppm gold, 35.86 ppm silver, 20700 ppm copper, 45.1 ppm cobalt
Belmont Resources announces BC gold-silver-cobalt samples, appoints Greenwood veteran to BOD

  • 0.153 ppm gold, 6.46 ppm silver, 6234 ppm copper, 148.8 ppm cobalt

  • 1.329 ppm gold, 14.07 ppm silver, 6540 ppm copper, 1486.8 ppm cobalt

  • 4.374 ppm gold, 19.5 ppm silver, 6667 ppm copper, 31.7 ppm cobalt

  • 2.172 ppm gold, 14.31 ppm silver, 6551 ppm copper, 931.6 ppm cobalt

  • 5.228 ppm gold, 17.39 ppm silver, 7302 ppm copper, 47.9 ppm cobalt

Further plans call for an airborne VTEM survey to identify drill targets. Three sides of the 296-hectare project border claims held by Kinross Gold TSX:K subsidiary KG Exploration.

Belmont also announced George Sookochoff’s appointment as director. Coming from a southern B.C. mining family, Sookochoff has served as president of GGX Gold TSXV:GGX and executive VP of Golden Dawn Minerals TSXV:GOM, two other companies active in the Greenwood camp. He’s also served as president/CEO of International PBX Ventures, now Chilean Metals TSXV:CMX, which holds copper and gold projects in Chile.

“Throughout my long career in the junior mining sector and having worked on numerous exploration projects around the world, it has always been my strong belief that the Greenwood mining camp, with its rich history in mining, still remains to be one of the best exploration areas in the world,” Sookochoff commented.

In Nevada Belmont holds a 75% interest in the Kibby Basin lithium project, where drill results have graded up to 393 ppm lithium over 42.4 metres and 415 ppm over 30.5 metres.

The company’s portfolio also includes two northern Saskatchewan uranium properties shared 50/50 with International Montoro Resources TSXV:IMT.

Last month Belmont offered a private placement of up to $510,000. The company closed a $252,000 placement in June and arranged two loans totalling $50,000 in August.

International Montoro Resources employs high-tech analysis of Elliot Lake-region nickel-copper prospect

September 10th, 2019

by Greg Klein | September 10, 2019

A geophysical analysis on the property released last March found targets described as “good candidates for semi-massive nickel-copper mineralization.” Now International Montoro Resources TSXV:IMT has contracted Mira Geoscience to compile and analyze a much larger data set for the Pecors Lake project, part of the 1,840-hectare Serpent River property in Ontario’s Elliot Lake district.

International Montoro Resources employs high-tech analysis of Elliot Lake-region nickel-copper prospect

Nickel-copper potential brings new interest to
International Montoro Resources’ Serpent River property.

Historic drilling on Serpent’s southwestern area found uranium-rare earths mineralization. But extensive geophysical programs completed last year alerted Montoro to nickel-copper-PGE potential as well. A 3D model revealed that three assumed magnetic anomalies at Pecors actually comprise one contiguous anomaly estimated to be five kilometres long, two kilometres wide and two kilometres deep.

Considered pioneers of advanced geological and geophysical 3D and 4D modelling, Mira Geoscience will enter a library of data into its Geoscience Analyst 3D interactive platform. Included will be Ontario Geological Survey geochem and petrographic studies; OGSEarth data from drilling conducted by Teck Resources TSX:TECK.A/TSX:TECK.B, Rio Tinto NYSE:RIO, BHP Billiton NYSE:BHPand others on or near the property; federal government regional gravity and magnetic surveys; Montoro’s 22 drill holes; and downhole EM data for two holes reaching depths of one and 1.3 kilometres respectively.

In central British Columbia, Montoro had a 43-101 technical study completed in April for its recently acquired Wicheeda North property, adjacent to the Wicheeda rare earths deposit currently being drilled by Defense Metals TSXV:DEFN under option from Spectrum Mining. The report states that Wicheeda North “has the potential to host, and should continue to be explored for, rare earth element mineralization because it occurs within a favourable geological belt known to contain carbonatite-hosted REE mineralization.”

A 3D magnetic inversion was completed in June for the property, which Montoro has expanded to 2,138 hectares.

The company’s portfolio also includes the 2,300-hectare Duhamel property in central Quebec, considered prospective for nickel-copper-cobalt, as well as titanium-vanadium-chromium.

Along with Belmont Resources TSXV:BEA, Montoro shares 50/50 ownership of two uranium properties in northern Saskatchewan’s Uranium City area.

Last month Montoro closed a private placement first tranche of $47,500.

Uranium: A 2040 prognosis

September 5th, 2019

Growing energy needs, emissions reduction look positive for the other yellow metal

by Greg Klein

Oversupplied and under-priced for years, uranium’s forecast now looks good up to 2040, according to a new study. In its latest Nuclear Fuel Report, a study released at roughly two-year intervals, the World Nuclear Association has revised its projections upwards for the first time in eight years. Demand will come from a growing reliance on nuclear energy thanks mainly to China, India and other Asian countries, said the industry organization. Global warming concerns also play a role.

Growing energy needs, emissions reduction look positive for the other yellow metal

The report presents different data for each of three case studies, explained World Nuclear News, a WNA publication. The Reference scenario reflects official targets and plans announced by states and companies, and also considers how nuclear can help address climate change. The Upper scenario anticipates more favourable economics, greater public acceptance and increased dependency to offset climate change. The Lower scenario considers the possibility of negative public sentiment, a lack of political support and more challenging economics.

Even at the Lower scenario, the study foresees nuclear capacity remaining at its current level of 402 gigawatt electrical to 2040. The Reference scenario sees moderate growth to 569 GWe, while the Upper scenario predicts capacity almost doubling to 776 GWe.

The Upper and Reference scenarios show faster growth than at any time since 1990.

Even greater expansion would be required should countries adopt the WNA’s Harmony climate change strategy, which calls for nuclear to supply 25% of the world’s electricity by 2050.

The need for new primary uranium supply becomes even more pressing as a number of older mines are projected to be depleted in the second decade.—World Nuclear Association

The three scenarios “show that the capacity of all presently known mining projects (current and idled mines, projects under development, planned or prospective) should be at least doubled by the end of the forecast period, and the need for new primary uranium supply becomes even more pressing as a number of older mines are projected to be depleted in the second decade,” the WNA emphasized. 

“There are more than adequate uranium resources to meet future needs. However, oversupply and associated low uranium prices are preventing the investment needed to convert these resources into production. Uranium resources would be unlikely to be a limiting factor for the expansion of nuclear programs in order to meet the Harmony goal.”

As for uranium production, the report sees “fairly stable” volume until the late 2020s, but a sharp decrease from 2035 to 2040 “as a quarter of all mines listed in the model reach the end of their production lives,” the WNN stated. “Global output of 66,400 tonnes uranium in 2030 declines to 48,100 tU under the Reference scenario. For the Upper scenario the figures are 71,500 tU (2030) and 49,400 tU (2040). The partial return of currently idled mines to production is expected to begin in 2023 in the Reference case, 2022 in the Upper scenario and 2026 in the Lower scenario.”

In addition to Asia’s growing nuclear reliance, the report bases its positive forecasts on improved government sentiment in France, and in the U.S. at the federal and state level. Countries like Bangladesh, Egypt and Turkey will become significant producers of nuclear energy.

In our models, we don’t get excited on the demand side.—Kazatomprom CEO
Galymzhan Pirmatov,
as quoted by Bloomberg

The study crunched data from questionnaires sent to WNA members and non-members, publicly available info and “the judgement and experience of the members of the association’s working group.” Among the considerations were nuclear economics, government policies, public acceptance, climate change, electricity market structure and regulatory standards.

Co-chairing the working group was Riaz Rizvi, chief strategy and marketing officer for Kazatomprom, the world’s top uranium miner. But the positive forecasts seem to contradict his boss. Last June Bloomberg quoted CEO Galymzhan Pirmatovas saying, “In our models, we don’t get excited on the demand side.”

Using data from other sources, Cameco Corp TSX:CCO estimated an August 31 U3O8 spot price of $25.30 per pound and long-term price of $31.00, down from $26.30 spot and $31.25 long-term a year earlier. The company gives numbers of $60.50 spot and $70.00 long-term for March 1, 2011, 10 days before a tsunami hit Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi complex. As Japan shut down other reactors one by one, followed by a few other countries like Germany, the mining industry faced oversupply. Uranium prices fell steadily, sometimes dramatically.

Make no mistake, there is still a long way to go before we decide to restart McArthur River-Key Lake.—Cameco CEO Tim Gitzel

By January 2018 Cameco suspended its McArthur River mining and Key Lake milling operations, despite having put Cigar Lake into production less than four years earlier. Expressing cautious optimism last July, CEO Tim Gitzel added: “However, make no mistake, there is still a long way to go before we decide to restart McArthur River-Key Lake.”

But without them, Cameco has become more buyer than producer. To meet 2019 supply commitments, the company anticipates purchasing 21 million to 23 million pounds from other sources. That compares with an estimated nine million pounds expected from Cigar Lake this year.