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Rate cuts, bubble-like stock valuations and possible QE with “new non-traditional” interventions look good for gold: WGC

by Greg Klein | July 11, 2019

Some recent dips below $1,400 notwithstanding, yellow metal’s forecast looks positive for the next six to 12 months, according to the World Gold Council. While long-term performance depends on jewelry, technology and savings, shorter-term prices respond to other factors that the WGC considers positive for its favourite element.

Chief among them are interest rates, reflecting an about-face in global monetary policy. Less than a year ago the U.S. Federal Reserve and investors alike expected continued rate increases, the council stated. “Now, the market expects the Fed to cut rates two or three times before the end of the year. And while statements by board members, including Chairman Powell, are signaling a wait-and-see approach, the market has barely changed its forecast. The Fed may not do what the market asks, but it generally doesn’t like to surprise it either.”

The WGC expects Europe’s and Japan’s central banks to follow suit in a global environment of competing tariffs, U.S.-Iran conflict and the ever-looming Brexit. But, the WGC emphasizes, low rates have “the perverse effect of fueling a decade-long stock market rally with only temporary pullbacks. This has pushed stock valuations to levels not seen since the dot-com bubble.”

Should recession strike, central banks might respond with strategies almost guaranteed to bolster goldbugs’ hoarding instincts: “quantitative easing and, possibly, new non-traditional measures to reinvigorate the global economy.”

With over $13 trillion of global debt now offering nominal negative yields, “our analysis shows that 70% of all developed market debt is trading with negative real yields, with the remaining 30% close to or below 1%.”

As for central bank purchases, they came to about $10 billion during the year’s first five months, with continued buying expected. But a 10-year average shows central banks responsible for only 10% of gold demand. Jewelry commands the lead with 51%, followed by 27% for bars and coins, 9% for technology, and 3% for ETFs and similar products.

Positive economic performance, especially in China and India, would likely enhance the top category.

With a mandate to “stimulate and sustain demand for gold,” the WGC represents some of the world’s biggest gold miners.

Download the WGC’s Mid-Year Gold Outlook 2019.

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